Traffic is not the same as demand. In the Houston MSA during the week ended September 21, open houses increased, but pending sales fell sharply from a year earlier. My read is simple: buyers are still looking, but the bar for signing a contract is much higher on price, monthly payment and property condition.
The latest Houston numbers
The HAR weekly snapshot showed:
9,973 open houses, up 5.6% year over year.
3,379 new listings, down 7.8%.
1,554 pending sales, down 26.8%.
1,445 closings, down 12.4%.
Property showings declined 1.5%, while listing views on HAR.com fell 12.3%.
A single week is a signal, not a verdict. Weekly counts can move around because of holidays, weather and the timing of closings. But this gap fits the broader August market: HAR reported 5.3 months of single-family inventory, a $330,000 median price and fewer closings than a year earlier. Buyers have more choices, yet affordability still limits how many are ready to commit.
Why are people touring without writing offers?
1. The monthly payment has become the real price
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.03% on September 24. A buyer may like the house and still walk away after taxes, insurance, HOA or MUD costs are added to the payment. This is why a small price cut does not always solve the problem—and why a well-structured seller credit can sometimes matter more.
2. More choices make buyers compare harder
When several similar homes are available, buyers notice an older roof, deferred maintenance, awkward layout or a high tax rate much faster. They are not only comparing list prices. They are comparing the cost and risk of owning each home after closing.
3. Some sellers are still pricing for the old market
A busy open house can feel encouraging, but visitors do not set market value. The most useful feedback is what qualified buyers do afterward: request disclosures, schedule a second showing or submit an offer. If none of that happens, the market is giving information—not necessarily asking for an immediate price cut, but asking the seller to diagnose the gap.
What sellers should do now
Treat the first 10 to 14 days as a testing period. Track qualified showings, second visits, disclosure requests and direct feedback—not headcount alone.
Compare against current competing listings, recent pending homes and closed sales. A high old sale does not explain what buyers can choose today.
Price out two options: a direct reduction and a seller credit that improves the buyer payment or cash to close. Let the lender calculate the real effect.
Fix obvious objections before adding more marketing. More traffic will not cure a roof, HVAC, insurance or condition concern.
If the home is getting showings but no offers, use a structured diagnosis before making a random change.
Read: Why is my Houston home getting showings but no offers?
What buyers should do now
Do not read a slower market as a guaranteed discount on every home. Well-priced, well-maintained properties can still attract competition.
Refresh your pre-approval and payment ceiling using current rates, taxes and insurance—not a quote from several weeks ago.
Compare the full ownership cost: price, financing, tax rate, insurance, HOA or MUD, immediate repairs and likely resale competition.
Negotiate the terms that solve your real constraint. That may be price, closing costs, a rate buydown, repairs, timing or a combination.
Read: What the recent Fed move really means for Houston mortgage rates
My takeaway
This is not a market where buyers have disappeared. It is a market where buyers need a stronger reason to act. Sellers should stop treating foot traffic as proof that the price is right, and buyers should use the extra selection to compare carefully without assuming every seller is desperate.
FAQ
Does a 26.8% drop in pending sales mean Houston prices will fall 26.8%?
No. Pending sales measure contract volume, not price. One weekly year-over-year comparison cannot predict a matching price change. Price direction depends on location, property type, condition, supply and buyer demand.
Should a seller cut the price after one open house?
Usually not based on attendance alone. Review online engagement, qualified showing feedback, competing homes and the first 10 to 14 days of market response. If buyers consistently identify the same objection, then adjust the price, condition or terms with a specific goal.
Is this a good time for buyers to negotiate?
It can be, especially for homes with longer market time or clear condition issues. But the right offer depends on recent comparable sales and the alternatives available to the seller. A low offer without evidence is not the same as a strong negotiation.
Sources and limits
HAR Weekly Activity Snapshot (week ended September 21, 2026); HAR August 2026 Housing Market Update; and Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey as of September 24, 2026. Weekly figures are directional and should not be used as a substitute for a property-level market analysis.
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About Joyce Tang
Joyce Tang is a Greater Houston real estate agent and investor, co-founder of the North American Real Estate Association, founder of JoyHome and JoyNest, and co-leader of the Dr. Wang Real Estate Team.
She has helped more than 200 families buy or sell homes and has participated in more than 40 renovation projects. Her approach examines not only price, but also location, carrying cost, cash flow, risk and future exit options.
Disclaimer: Market data is historical and may change. Weekly figures do not predict the value or sale outcome of a specific property. Mortgage qualification, rates and credits depend on the borrower, property and lender. Buyers and sellers should verify current MLS data and consult the appropriate licensed professionals before making a decision.